Arbitrage‐free call option surface construction using regression splines

In this work, we suggest a novel quadratic programming‐based algorithm to generate an arbitrage‐free call option surface. The empirical performance of the proposed method is evaluated using S&P 500 Index call options. Our results indicate that the proposed method provides a more precise fit to observed option prices than other alternative methodologies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

砂岩方梁断裂过程区范围的实验确定方法

裂纹前端的断裂过程区是引起岩石非线性断裂及尺寸效应的主要原因。利用数字图像相关技术对砂岩开展了三点弯曲梁实验,获得观测区域高精度的全场位移和应变数据,根据断裂韧带区域水平位移和水平应变的分布特征,结合裂尖岩石颗粒变化的微观分析,提出采用裂纹尖端水平位移波动性和水平应变突变性所得到的波动系数和水平应变突变值,确定断裂过程区形状和临界尺寸的方法。结果表明:砂岩断裂过程区的形状为不规则的狭长带状区域,断裂过程区的临界长度为11~13mm,临界宽度为1.58~2.36mm。断裂过程区区域内形变在趋向裂尖时呈指数增加,但其单位区域内的形变增量呈波动状态。该方法能够更加准确判断岩石断裂过程区的范围,有助于分析岩石的非线性断裂特性。     

Statistical Inference with Fractional Brownian Motion

We give a test between two complex hypothesis; namely we test whether a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) has a linear trend against a certain non-linear trend. We study some related questions, like goodness-of-fit test and volatility estimation in these models.     

Estimation of integrated volatility in stochastic volatility models

In the framework of stochastic volatility models we examine estimators for the integrated volatility based on the pth power variation (i.e. the sum of pth absolute powers of the log‐returns). We derive consistency and distributional results for the estimators given high‐frequency data, especially taking into account what kind of process we may add to our model without affecting the estimate of the integrated volatility. This may on the one hand be interpreted as a possible flexibility in modelling, for example adding jumps or even leaving the framework of semimartingales by adding a fractional Brownian motion, or on the other hand as robustness against model misspecification. We will discuss possible choices of p under different model assumptions and irregularly spaced data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国股票市场波动特性的实证研究

本文以上证综指和深成分指数的日收益率为研究对象 ,应用 GARCH、TARCH模型理论 ,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性 ,同时比较了两个股票市场的不同波动特征     

中国股票市场风险的实证分析研究

本文从实证角度说明了上证指数和深证成份指数存在着GARCH现象 ,并建立了沪、深两市股指波动率的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型。将估计的IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型比较得出 ,对上证指数的波动率 ,IGARCH(1,1) M模型与EGARCH(1,1) M模型的模拟效果基本相同 ,而对深证成份指数的波动率 ,IGARCH M模型要略优于EGARCH M模型。同时还对两市的股指收益的波动率进行了预测分析     

动态随机弹性在期权定价中的应用

给出动态随机弹性的概念及运算性质,讨论了动态随机弹性在期权定价模型中的应用.主要结果有:(1)在波动率为常数时,期权价格对的弹性,得到了动态随机弹性服从运动,并给出了相应的经济解释;(2)由于波动率一般不是常数,也是随机过程,因此本文进一步研究了期权价格对波动率的弹性,就股票价格的波动情况给出了数学描述和金融意义上的解释.     

带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型的MCMC算法

我们首先提出了一个带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型,它是基本的随机波动模型的一个自然的推广.进一步,对于这一新模型,我们给出了一个马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(M CM C)算法.最后,利用该模型的模拟数据,展示了M CM C算法在这种模型中的应用.     

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

   Abstract. This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature.     

主动发起的融资融券交易对中国股票市场的影响

本文以融资买入和融券卖出为研究对象,分析了投资者主动发起的融资融券交易对股票回报、流动性和波动性的影响,给出了中国股票市场融资融券发展现状。研究发现,融资买入(融券卖出)对当日股票回报有显著为正(负)的影响,交易表现与政策制定动机——融资反映投资者看涨情绪、融券反映投资者看跌情绪一致。此外,融资买入(融券卖出)增加了(降低)股票流动性;融资买入(融券卖出)降低(增加)了股票波动性;融资融券对股票交易特征的影响有随时间逐渐改善的趋势。最后,本文发现融资融券对股票回报、流动性和波动性产生的影响与股票所在板块有关,随着中小板和创业板股票所占比重的增加,调整和优化融资融券对股票市场的影响仍然是监管者未来主要任务之一。